Florida
Gators Under 11 Regular Season Wins (-110)
The Florida Gators look poised to have another incredible season, returning
Tim Tebow (easily one of the greatest college football quarterbacks of all time)
and remarkably enough all 11 starters on what was an outstanding defense last
year. It is easy to see why this team is being penciled in as a near sure thing
to defend their national title.
I’m not going to give you a pitch on how much losing Percy Harvin and Louis
Murphy will hurt this offense. It certainly will have an effect, but this team
has so much talent and speed that they will do just fine. I’m just looking at
good old fashioned history on this one.
The SEC, well known to be the most competitive conference in football, was
formed in 1933. Putting your feeling about the SEC aside, you can’t deny that
the level of play is extremely high and physical.
Since 1933, the Florida Gators have accomplished the feat of a regular season
undefeated record ZERO times. In 2006 it was Auburn that delivered their one
loss. In 2008 it was Ole Miss. Running the table in any conference is difficult;
doing so in the SEC is virtually impossible.
I think this bet has a very high probability of pushing, as I expect Florida
to drop only one game somewhere. But I think there is a better chance that two
games get away from the Gators that there is they go undefeated, so I’ll take a
shot on the Under.
California Bears Over 9 Regular Season Wins (-155)
Cal has been such a difficult to peg team over the last five years, showing
flashes of brilliance where they look unbeatable and then inexplicably dropping
games they should not be losing. As such, it’s hard to have much confidence in
this wager, but the hype around this team is real.
Having a Heisman Trophy Caliber running back in Javhid Best and an
outstanding defense, this team seems to have the recipe for success down pat. If
they play to the level they are capable of playing, they should be able to put
together a 10-win season.
They’d have to lose four games for this bet to end up a loser. Assuming they
don’t get caught looking ahead to Oregon the week they play Minnesota, the Bears
should enter the Oregon game at 3-0, meaning if they could pick up one win out
of three against Oregon and at home against USC or Oregon, they have a good
chance to cash, or at the very least push. If they take two of those three, all
systems are go.
Oregon will still be sorting issues out on both of their lines, which may
give Cal a chance to beat them in Eugene. The nice thing about this wager is
that three of Cal’s toughest games; Minnesota, Oregon, and USC; come right away.
You’ll know where you stand a mere five games into the season.
Oregon Ducks Over 8 Regular Season Wins (+240)
I don’t expect this one to cash, but it is a pretty exceptional price for a
boom-or-bust team that could easily be on the boom side. It also provides a bit
of a semi-hedge to the Cal wager; if Oregon comes out on top, their regular
season win chances get a lot better.
Oregon’s offense will be excellent this year. I’m not as worried about the
O-Line as some are, and think it will be just fine. The D-Line raises some
question marks, but the LBs and secondary are both very fast and athletic. This
will be a big play defense, and if they can succeed in even slowing down
opposing teams, that should be enough for this powerhouse offense to do it’s
thing.
I can see things going the other way, too. Time of possession killed the
Ducks last year, and a completely rebuilt D-Line with virtually no game
experience doesn’t lead me to believe this year will be leaps and bounds better.
It’s possible that this year will be a frustrating one for the Ducks.
But one of the nations most explosive and athletic teams at +240 to surpass
eight wins? Of arguably the five most difficult games on the schedule; Boise
State, Utah, California, USC, and Oregon State; Oregon will be at home for FOUR
of these games. And they have plenty of motivation to get revenge on Boise State
(their one road game of the five) for beating them on their home turf last year.
An 8-4 season seems very realistic to me. 7-5 may be slightly more likely
than 9-3, but not nearly enough to cover the +240 being offered. Another nice
bet since you will know exactly where you stand when three of the toughest games
come in the first four opponents.